Can weather start a war?

The global weather cycles that affect our planet regularly coincide with civil wars and could be a key factor in outbreaks of violence in tropical countries, according to a new study.

One of the most famous climate cycles is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, or El Niño for short). This is the name given to the periodic warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño arrives every three to seven years and affects the weather in Africa, the Middle East, Australia, the Americas and much of Asia.

During El Niño, temperatures rise and rainfall drops, although the effects and length of El Niño can vary greatly. Scroll down for a video that explains more about El Niño.

Researchers writing in Nature say how they have studied El Niño records from 1950 to 2004 and compared them with reports of any civil wars that killed more than 25 people in any year. In this time period, there were 234 conflicts in 175 countries. In countries affected by these weather patterns, the chance of civil war was found to be 3%, but during El Niño this rose to 6%. For countries not affected by El Niño, the chance remained at a steady 2%.

Although the researchers say they are not claiming that weather starts wars, it can deliver the “knockout punch” in a country that is suffering from social inequality and tension between groups. They point out that Australia, a rich country, is affected by El Niño but has never had a civil war. Politics and economics all play their part in starting wars.

Comments (0)

There are no comments at the moment.

You may add a comment about this video by logging in to your account.